Risk Engineering Home Course Concepts About

Uncertainty in risk engineering: concepts


Fog on a refinery

This submodule covers the following topics:

  • aleatory, epistemic and value-related categories of uncertainty

  • the objectives of uncertainty modelling

  • different levels of integration of uncertainty modelling in risk assessment

  • the propagation of uncertainty through risk models to characterize output uncertainty

This submodule is a part of the risk management module.

Learning objectives

Upon completion of this submodule, you should be able to:

  • Understand probabilistic modelling and uncertainty propagation

  • Know when probabilistic and possibilistic uncertainty representations should be used

  • Know how to combine probabilistic and possibilistic representations in a single model and propagate uncertainties

  • Understand use of results for decision-making

Course material

Uncertainty in risk engineering: concepts

Lecture slides (PDF)
View on Slideshare

Python notebook on uncertainty propagation

View Python notebook online

Download Python notebook

Launch interactive notebook mybinder

Other resources

We recommend the following sources of further information on this topic:

Photo credits: Louis Vest, CC BY-SA